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Old 12-04-2012, 11:06 AM   #1
Blades
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Investors and Money Makers .. Predictions?



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...cal-cliff.html

Since paychecks will be reduce as of Jan 1st, 2013 for all house holds and some tax exemptions stop at the end of the year people are predicting the next recession for the USA. Supposedly we will be impacted but not as bad (as they say .. media).

My father-in-law is already seeing layoffs ahead of time for construction in housing/buildings so I predict it will be a bad recession and this one may impact housing prices in Canada. From what I gathered in information this will the 20 year slope (kinda of a sin wave of ups and downs .. '81,'90,'01,'07,) where we will see US spending less which in turn will also effect the economy and businesses. I predict there dollar value might decrease against the Canadian dollar to help spending over the boarder.

Also noticed a great rate for mortgages locked in for 7 years (not 5 or 10 .. but 7 for some reason)

Anyone else ..thoughts? see anything in your field coming up?
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Old 12-04-2012, 11:20 AM   #2
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I believe that the floor is going to fall out from under the US dollar. They are borrowing way too much money from the Fed to ever sustain itself. Obama has borrowed more money in his 4 years the every president combined starting from George Washington.

You should look for a guy named "Peter Schiff" on youtube. Hes an economist and investor and predicted the recession and everything else. He believes that the US will collapse. House prices will fall even more and the dollar will literally be worthless. Like where a loaf of bread may cost you $100 or $1000. Hes buying gold & Silver in Bullion and suggests everyone do the same.
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Old 12-04-2012, 12:27 PM   #3
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I think that Canada is going to be hit hard in the housing market.

Condo's will be severely impacted (they already are). While anectodes aren't consider facts, what I've been seeing alot of, are people selling their homes 10-20K below asking price, sometimes more. This is becoming a common occurence - go back a few months and that was unheard of.

The Toronto area, downtown core for housing, I don't see being that heavily impacted - for houses. However condos will be hit hard.

Vancouver is a disaster.


As for investment ideas. I agree with Silver and Gold. The other option are bank stocks. They still recording record profits. And they are in a position to win every scenario.

a) If people fore close their homes, majority at insured for default by CMHC and GE.
b) If rates go up, the bank will have a higher spread.
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Old 12-04-2012, 01:22 PM   #4
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actually the hard loft I had my eye sold for asking...the chitty studio condos will do ok since they are easy to rent out and usually sold below $500 sqft but the two bedrooms downtown will get slaughtered on pricing....Im seeing less listings though so investors might be holding onto them until the storm blows over.Vancouver your seeing alot of those who are borrowed to the tilt reducing prices in Richmond by as much as %20 but the areas like Yaletown,Kitts,and Gastown not that much of reduction..maybe %10 tops....
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Old 12-04-2012, 01:39 PM   #5
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Aren't we all supposed to die in a couple weeks anyway? I've already spent my savings on coke and hookers in anticipation of the end of the world.
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Old 12-04-2012, 01:52 PM   #6
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the price of e30's is going up as fast as the price of gold. I know what I'll be investing my money in
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Old 12-04-2012, 03:11 PM   #7
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Im sure a real investor will tell you gold is not a wise investment as it has no true value. The value of gold is purley speculation.
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Old 12-04-2012, 09:47 PM   #8
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I dont see forecloser for rates wil remain low till 2014, at least
Condo wil still sell for houses are selling beyond what 1st time buyer can afford...

Dow is performing much better than the TSX for the past year (look at the DOW index 13 thou plus).

Peter Schiff is a doomsayer, he was wrong in predicting gold, gold has came down from its high of 1900 to 17 plus...look at all the Gold producers, their stocks has took a beating.. silver is performing better ..

Gold is an hedge against US dollar but it is not true anymore, some days you see weak US and weak Gold futures.

So as an investor what do you do?

buy low.. sell high...

buy all the banks(TD,BNS,RY, i like BMO, CIBC) (but dont buy now, it is pricey)

dont buy oil but buy pipelines, (Enbridge, TRP, Inter pipe line)even if oil is low, they still need pipeline to transport
TRP(transcanada pipeline Obama will approve this, this term)

buy gold etf(XEG)

buy reit(RIOCAN, too rich now)

and finally buy a lot of RIM...remember Apple at $8, it is $600 recently...

and buy Lotto Max...you never know...
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Old 12-04-2012, 09:53 PM   #9
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RIM really? Have you seen the new fail phone?
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Old 12-04-2012, 11:12 PM   #10
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RIM really? Have you seen the new fail phone?
Yup.. at this price,,

the patent they own is worth at least $20 a share
and it came back from $6 to almost $12 recently thats 100% gain if you bought at $6, it was at $8, (I got in at $8.50 and my exit price is $15, stop at $10.50) when the BB10 device was tested by US carriers
and they supported it.. Jeffries and Goldman sach upgraded RIM to a buy and it went from $8 to close at $11.70 plus, I think today...

Do your DD..
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Old 12-05-2012, 06:51 AM   #11
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Housing is going up in canada. I mean, the taxes went up based on an increase in value that is unfeasible. I would sell at "taxable" price but its about 10% greater than what the market is supporting right now. Hopefully their optimism pans out but I have my doubts.
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Old 12-05-2012, 08:45 AM   #12
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investing in RIM would be high risk .. no different then the whole Nortel stock a few years ago.

I agree with people in not investing in gold .. I would put my money in Silver depending on whats happening to the dollar and other community trading.

As for housing .. I think there will be a short small drop .. I'm hearing all over the news about companies (pacific rail for example) laying off people in the next few years
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Old 12-05-2012, 09:49 AM   #13
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Housing in toronto isn't ready for a drop. Its not really a bubble, anyway, people are just willing to work their ass of for 25 years to live here.

If the housing market dropped 10% across the board in toronto, tons of new buyers would get into the market seizing the opportunity, which would drive prices right back up.
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Old 12-05-2012, 10:37 AM   #14
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investing in RIM would be high risk .. no different then the whole Nortel stock a few years ago.
I wouldnt say high risk, there is a risk involves in every stock you buy, so you have to know what your risk tolerant is.

Cant compare RIM to Nortel, different business and Nortel was more "creative accounting" when it went under unlike RIM who is sitting on around 3 billlion in cash and their subscriptons grew in their last quarters.

Ironically RIM, APPLE and a few others combined and bought Nortel's patents.

The market has been saying that condo market will crash for the last 5 years and if you have waited for the crash,you will still be waiting and you would have to pay $100K more today...SQ 1 condos were selling for $200k 5 or 6 years ago, I saw used units in that area listing for $340ish
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Old 12-05-2012, 02:13 PM   #15
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Listing price and selling price are two different things. I have a sq1 condo in an older building, been steadily growing but the latest tax assessmeny is overly optimistic. Im mostly just bitter that I have have now switched to defecit from a slight surplus on my rental.
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